Why Has the State Administration Council Failed to Gain Control of Myanmar?

In August 1988, university students in Myanmar organized a nationwide pro-democracy movement that brought down the government of the military-dominated Burma Socialist Program Party. However, the military cracked down on the protests and, within three weeks, had succeeded in reasserting control, although an underground resistance movement continued. This history shaped expectations for the aftermath of the military’s decision to topple a popularly elected government on February 1, 2021. The current commander-in-chief, hand-picked by one of the leaders of 1988’s coup d’état, reportedly thought that he and his colleagues would once again quickly be able to take control of the country. 

Public reaction surprised both international and domestic observers. Protests led by young people—“Gen Z”—sprang up and spread to almost all major cities and towns, drawing support from people in all walks of life. More than two years on, opponents of the State Administration Council (SAC), the military’s governing body, continue to contest its control. Some of the protest groups have transformed into People’s Defense Forces and are engaged in armed struggle against the military. Others have remained non-violent, expressing their disapproval through silent protests and refusal to recognize the SAC as even a de facto government.

Why has the powerful and well-armed Myanmar military failed in 2021 where its predecessor succeeded in 1988, in the face of equally powerful protests? The answer, as this talk will explain, lies in complex changes within both the military and society over the last decade. It is the combined impact of two developments—the weakening of social control by the military and the emergence of a politically savvy and sophisticated civil society—that has enabled the anti-military movement to withstand the State Administration Council.